A：加 Globe and Mail:
本文列出金融股和整个股市的关系。文章摘要如下：
1。Apart from a few weeks in late April and early May, the trailing 20-day correlation between the S&P 500 and the financial sector has been above 0.7 all year, according to data from S&P’s Capital IQ, meaning where financials led, the broader market often followed.
2。The S&P financials sector trades at a price to book ratio of 0.89 times, or less than the value of its stated assets. This low ratio suggests that investors do not trust the value of bank assets and expect writedowns over time. But, historically, such a low price to book ratio has attracted value investors who patiently bide their time waiting for vindication.
3。J.J. Kinnahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade, agrees. “The market has thrown everything it can at U.S. financials and they’re still standing, and on a global basis they’re standing tallest in the room,” Mr. Kinnahan said. “If investor money comes out of tech stocks and is looking for a place to go, it could well end up in financials.”
B：加 Globe and Mail:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/2012-market-outlook/the-omens-well-some-of-them-look-good-for-2012/article2289203/
本文列出可以召显经济走势的几处细节。文章摘要如下：
1。The first is North American rail traffic. Warren Buffett has paid close attention to train statistics for years, because rail traffic provides an objective measure of the flow of raw goods (carloads) to the factory and finished goods (intermodal units) to market. Strong levels of both are required for the economy to really get moving.
As it turns out, the recent numbers from the Association of American Railroads indicate that the economy in North America is recovering, albeit slowly, from the 2008-2009 downturn. In Canada, there were 1.2-per-cent more carloads and 3.3-per-cent more intermodal units heading out for the week ending Dec. 10 compared with the same week last year. The numbers in the U.S. climbed 3.7 per cent for carloads and 3.0 per cent for intermodal units over the same period. While the weekly tallies bounce around, the overall trend has been good since the start of 2011 and that bodes well for the economy in the near term.
reader comment: The Baltic Dry Index (which measures prices to ship materials, Google for deets) has had an aneurism since 2007/2008. Check out the 5 year BDI chart here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
2。When the spread between three-month yields and 10-year yields is narrow or even negative (which happens when the three-month yield is higher than the 10-year yield) the Fed is slamming on the brakes by making it relatively expensive to borrow money in the short term. If the Fed goes too far, a recession results. On the other hand, a large spread between three-month T-bills and 10-year bonds indicates the central bank is easing by making short-term loans cheap in comparison to long-term debt, which is generally good news for the economy.
Right now the U.S. yield spread is about 1.9 percentage points. Based upon similar readings in the past, the chance of a recession in a year’s time is below 5 per cent.
That’s a mighty rosy prediction but it comes with a side order of caution. The model was developed using U.S. data starting in the early 1970s. The model may not be well calibrated for the current economic mess. Debt levels are at extremes not seen since the 1930s and the situation in Europe is similarly unusual. How this situation resolves itself hinges in large part on the psychology of consumers and investors。
reader comment: And using Treasury spreads to "predict" a 5% chance of recession? After:
a) two rounds of Quantitative Easing in the US (aka money printing) to bring down short term yields; and
b) Operation Twist, whose purpose is to bring down long term rates
... well, that's just inane.
I don't know any better than anyone whether we're headed for a recession, but 5% chance? Who are you kidding?
3。Try to figure out what’s on the consumers' and investors's minds? Google Trends provides an easy way to do this, by letting you look up the popularity of various search terms. Just type “recession” into Google Trends and you’ll get two graphs – one tracking the number of searches for “recession” over time, and the other tracking mentions of it in the news sources followed by Google News.
Recession queries were generally non-existent prior to the end of 2007 but they spiked during downturn of 2008-2009. Since then they declined steadily until last August when they jumped during the U.S. debt payment fiasco. As that problem passed, the trend fell again toward the end of 2011, although it remains elevated compared to levels seen for much of the last two years.
B：加 Globe and Mail:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/2012-market-outlook/the-omens-well-some-of-them-look-good-for-2012/article2289203/
本文列出可以召显经济走势的几处细节。文章摘要如下：
1。The first is North American rail traffic. Warren Buffett has paid close attention to train statistics for years, because rail traffic provides an objective measure of the flow of raw goods (carloads) to the factory and finished goods (intermodal units) to market. Strong levels of both are required for the economy to really get moving.
As it turns out, the recent numbers from the Association of American Railroads indicate that the economy in North America is recovering, albeit slowly, from the 2008-2009 downturn. In Canada, there were 1.2-per-cent more carloads and 3.3-per-cent more intermodal units heading out for the week ending Dec. 10 compared with the same week last year. The numbers in the U.S. climbed 3.7 per cent for carloads and 3.0 per cent for intermodal units over the same period. While the weekly tallies bounce around, the overall trend has been good since the start of 2011 and that bodes well for the economy in the near term.
reader comment: The Baltic Dry Index (which measures prices to ship materials, Google for deets) has had an aneurism since 2007/2008. Check out the 5 year BDI chart here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
2。When the spread between three-month yields and 10-year yields is narrow or even negative (which happens when the three-month yield is higher than the 10-year yield) the Fed is slamming on the brakes by making it relatively expensive to borrow money in the short term. If the Fed goes too far, a recession results. On the other hand, a large spread between three-month T-bills and 10-year bonds indicates the central bank is easing by making short-term loans cheap in comparison to long-term debt, which is generally good news for the economy.
Right now the U.S. yield spread is about 1.9 percentage points. Based upon similar readings in the past, the chance of a recession in a year’s time is below 5 per cent.
That’s a mighty rosy prediction but it comes with a side order of caution. The model was developed using U.S. data starting in the early 1970s. The model may not be well calibrated for the current economic mess. Debt levels are at extremes not seen since the 1930s and the situation in Europe is similarly unusual. How this situation resolves itself hinges in large part on the psychology of consumers and investors。
reader comment: And using Treasury spreads to "predict" a 5% chance of recession? After:
a) two rounds of Quantitative Easing in the US (aka money printing) to bring down short term yields; and
b) Operation Twist, whose purpose is to bring down long term rates
... well, that's just inane.
I don't know any better than anyone whether we're headed for a recession, but 5% chance? Who are you kidding?
3。Try to figure out what’s on the consumers' and investors's minds? Google Trends provides an easy way to do this, by letting you look up the popularity of various search terms. Just type “recession” into Google Trends and you’ll get two graphs – one tracking the number of searches for “recession” over time, and the other tracking mentions of it in the news sources followed by Google News.
Recession queries were generally non-existent prior to the end of 2007 but they spiked during downturn of 2008-2009. Since then they declined steadily until last August when they jumped during the U.S. debt payment fiasco. As that problem passed, the trend fell again toward the end of 2011, although it remains elevated compared to levels seen for much of the last two years.
C：加 Globe and Mail:
本文列出美国近几年最大的出口商品（产业）。
Here are the top U.S. exports for the past six years, according to U.S. Census records.
2011 (Through October)
1 — Fuel: $73.4-billion;
2 — Aircraft: $70.8-billion;
3 — Motor Vehicles: $39.6-billion;
4 — Vacuum Tubes: $37.1-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $33.2-billion.
———
2010
1 — Aircraft: $79.2-billion;
2 — Fuel: $53.7-billion;
3 — Vacuum Tubes: $47.3-billion;
4 — Motor Vehicles: $39.3-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $35.3-billion.
———
2009
1 — Aircraft: $82.9-billion;
2 — Vacuum Tubes: $37.7-billion;
3 — Fuel: $36.5-billion;
4 — Telecommunications Equipment: $30.8-billion;
5 — Motor Vehicles: $28.4-billion.
2008
1 — Aircraft: $72-billion;
2 — Fuel: $51.8-billion;
3 — Motor Vehicles: $50.7-billion;
4 — Vacuum Tubes: $50.6-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $35.4-billion.
———
2007
1 — Aircraft: $75.9-billion;
2 — Vacuum Tubes: $50.2-billion;
3 — Motor Vehicles: $44.8-billion;
4 — Vehicle Parts: $$35.1-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $32.4-billion.
———
2006
1 — Aircraft: $66.7-billion;
2 — Vacuum Tubes: $53-billion;
3 — Motor Vehicles: $35.4-billion;
4 — Vehicle Parts: $34-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $28.8-billion.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Here are the top U.S. exports for the past six years, according to U.S. Census records.
2011 (Through October)
1 — Fuel: $73.4-billion;
2 — Aircraft: $70.8-billion;
3 — Motor Vehicles: $39.6-billion;
4 — Vacuum Tubes: $37.1-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $33.2-billion.
———
2010
1 — Aircraft: $79.2-billion;
2 — Fuel: $53.7-billion;
3 — Vacuum Tubes: $47.3-billion;
4 — Motor Vehicles: $39.3-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $35.3-billion.
———
2009
1 — Aircraft: $82.9-billion;
2 — Vacuum Tubes: $37.7-billion;
3 — Fuel: $36.5-billion;
4 — Telecommunications Equipment: $30.8-billion;
5 — Motor Vehicles: $28.4-billion.
2008
1 — Aircraft: $72-billion;
2 — Fuel: $51.8-billion;
3 — Motor Vehicles: $50.7-billion;
4 — Vacuum Tubes: $50.6-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $35.4-billion.
———
2007
1 — Aircraft: $75.9-billion;
2 — Vacuum Tubes: $50.2-billion;
3 — Motor Vehicles: $44.8-billion;
4 — Vehicle Parts: $$35.1-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $32.4-billion.
———
2006
1 — Aircraft: $66.7-billion;
2 — Vacuum Tubes: $53-billion;
3 — Motor Vehicles: $35.4-billion;
4 — Vehicle Parts: $34-billion;
5 — Telecommunications Equipment: $28.8-billion.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
读者解读：（1）Somebody, either at the Census Bureau or more likely at Associated Press, misinterpreted the end-use classification code. Not "vacuum tubes" but (21320) Semiconductors.
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/product/enduse/exports/c0000.html
Vacuum tubes are a minor niche technology and almost all are manufactured overseas, with just a handful of small manufacturers in the US.
On the other hand Intel, AMD, Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, Maxim, etc. all have significant production facilities in the US.
（2）That is a misleading statistic, but yes, the USA is currently a net exporter of refined products.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WRPNTUS2&f=W
This is due to reduced usage because of the ongoing recession. For years, the USA has preferred to import refined products so their refineries stay at capacity.
The US now exports gasoline because Americans can't afford to use it.
D：加 Globe and Mail:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/at-the-bell/2011-was-a-bad-but-typical-year-for-economic-forecasters/article2288451/
本文总结2011年年初的经济预测及在年终回顾这些预测准确与否。全文如下：
This is the annual festival of forecasting, the time of year when every economist and financial analyst weighs in with his or her outlook for the year ahead.
It makes for great entertainment. Unfortunately, it doesn’t make for great investing.
One year ago, the best brains of Bay Street and Wall Street were advising investors to buy North American and emerging market stocks, to increase exposure to commodities and to avoid U.S Treasuries and their pitifully low yields.
The advice was logical – but not profitable. The recommended stock markets swooned. So did many commodities. U.S. Treasuries, on the other hand, enjoyed a banner year.
A bad year for forecasters? Actually it was pretty typical.
“Forecasting is notoriously unreliable over the long term,” says Eric Kirzner, professor of finance at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. “Last year [forecasters] overstated the mark. This year they may understate the mark, as forecasters tend to be very myopic.”
Even the best forecasters demonstrate little ability to make profitable predictions, according to Jason Hall and Paul Tacon of the University of Queensland. They found that the top third of forecasters over the past year are just slightly more accurate in the subsequent year than the bottom third of forecasters.
The past year demonstrated how predictions that look good in January can be tripped up by unexpected events. A Japanese earthquake in March threw markets into a tailspin. Then Europe’s debt crisis escalated dramatically and S&P issued an unprecedented downgrade advisory on U.S. debt.
In the U.S., pension managers had been expecting market gains of more than 7 per cent. Instead, the S&P 500 wound up essentially flat.
After being touted at the start of the year as the new drivers of global economic growth, emerging markets stalled. Indian and Chinese stocks plummeted 25 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, and emerging markets as a whole tumbled about 19 per cent.
One of the biggest beneficiaries among asset classes of the “flight to quality” proved to be U.S. Treasuries. At the start of 2011, a survey of 56 economists predicted that Treasuries would be hit hard as yields, which move in the opposite direction to prices, rose from about 3.4 per cent in December, 2010, to 4 per cent by now.
The sentiment against T-bills grew so strong that Bill Gross, managing director of Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC, cut the Pimco Total Return Fund’s exposure to zero in February. But the $55-billion (U.S.) selloff by the world’s biggest bond fund was a bad bet. By yearend, the yield on 10-year Treasuries had slid to under 1.9 per cent and investors who held them for the full year enjoyed gains of about 17 per cent.
Commodities proved a mixed bag. During the first four months of the year, prices climbed close to records hit back in 2008, fuelled by China’s seemingly insatiable demand for copper, steel, coal, fertilizer and other key ingredients of economic expansion.
But by mid-year, it was becoming obvious that companies in China and elsewhere had begun to delay purchases in favour of drawing down inventories. By yearend the benchmark global commodity index, the S&P GSCI, had dwindled below where it began 2011.
Gold prices remained strong, though still off their high hit in September. The precious metal rose by 9.2 per cent during the year. But major gold producers saw their market prices move the other way. （为什么？）
The gap between gold prices and the share prices of producers may well close in the year ahead. But will that be the result of gold prices falling or shares rising? It all depends which forecast you believe.
E: 美 NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/business/from-6-economists-6-ways-to-face-2012-economic-view.html
文中Mankiw 希望美联储主席能澄清美国短期利率到底是盯住什么，一般通胀率，核心通胀率，还是名义GDP？文章摘要如下：
A crucial question is how quickly the Fed will raise interest rates as the economy recovers. So far, Fed policy makers have said they expect to keep rates “exceptionally low” at least until mid-2013. There has even been talk about extending that time frame by a year, to mid-2014.
But Charles I. Plosser, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, was right when he said recently that “policy needs to be contingent on the economy, not the calendar.” The key to managing expectations will be spelling out this contingency plan in more detail. That is, what does the Fed need to see before it starts raising rates again?
Unfortunately, economists don’t offer simple and unequivocal advice. Some suggest watching the overall inflation rate. Others say to watch inflation, but to exclude volatile food and energy prices. And still others advise targeting nominal gross domestic product, which weights inflation and economic growth equally.
